Irondequoit, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

687
FXUS61 KBUF 141034
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
634 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak, broad area of low pressure and moisture over the Ohio Valley
will move very slowly northeast across the Great Lakes and New
England through the end of the week. Occasional showers will
continue, along with plenty of rain free time as well. A few
scattered thunderstorms are possible as well starting Thursday
afternoon and lasting into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A broad, weak mid level circulation over the Ohio Valley this
morning will gradually open up into a negatively tilted trough,
which will drift slowly north across the Great Lakes and southern
New England through Thursday. Weak forcing and moisture associated
with this feature will produce a few rounds of showers today through
Thursday, along with lengthy breaks of mainly rain free time.

An area of light rain stretching from Lake Ontario across Rochester
into the Finger Lakes early this morning will continue to drift
slowly east/northeast today, reaching the eastern Lake Ontario
region this afternoon. In the wake of this area of rain, a period of
minimal forcing and less mid level moisture should result in mainly
dry conditions across Western NY by this afternoon, with the drying
trend spreading east across the rest of the area later this
afternoon and evening. Expect mainly dry conditions overnight in
most areas, with the best chance of a few isolated showers being
late tonight across the western Southern Tier as the next spoke of
moisture drifts north out of PA.

Thursday, the weak mid level trough axis will be overhead. A plume
of modest instability and deeper moisture will move back into the
eastern Great Lakes. The morning will still be mainly dry, with the
possible exception of the western Southern Tier where a few
scattered showers will develop. Expect the coverage of showers and a
few scattered thunderstorms to increase in the afternoon with
diurnal instability, and low level forcing from lake breeze
boundaries and terrain induced circulations. The best coverage of
rain will likely be found from the Southern Tier northeast across
the Genesee Valley to the western Finger Lakes, and across the
southern Tug Hill region. Weak flow and poor lapse rates will keep
the severe risk to a minimum through Thursday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The next closed low to impact the region will meander out of the
northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest Thursday night. The
system will become vertically stacked as it begins to encroach on
the western Great Lakes Friday, then give way to secondary
cyclogenesis at the base of a secondary closed low over Hudson Bay
Friday night. The aggregate trough will then finally traverse the
eastern Great Lakes on Saturday.

In terms of sensible weather, this pattern should draw plenty of
Gulf-based moisture into the region and result in two distinct
opportunities for widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms.
The first will come late Thursday night into Friday as a robust
prefrontal trough moves in from the west. While diurnal timing of
this feature doesn`t lend a significant risk of surface based
convection, there will likely be enough elevated instability (up to
1500J/kg MUCAPE) and an uptick in bulk shear values (~30kts 0-6km)
to pose a lower-end risk of more robust thunderstorms as it moves
through. The second round of showers and thunderstorms will come
late Friday night into Saturday as the system`s strong cold front
similarly move in from the west. A bit more uncertainty with this
round of precip as elevated instability will be present though
again, diurnal timing does not appear overly favorable for strong
surface based convection.

Outside the chances for showers/thunderstorms, warm and muggy
weather is expected through at least Friday, though southwest flow
should keep temps several degrees lower around the Buffalo Metro
during the day. Slightly cooler but still quite warm for
most of Saturday ahead of the cold front.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A stacked low pressure system and broad surface wave will move east
of the region Saturday night. General troughing will linger across
the Northeast well into next week, with strong CAA around the system
causing temperatures to average near to below normal. Residual
moisture with these cooler temperatures aloft could allow for some
diurnal showers on Sunday, with occasional wrap around showers
possibly clipping the North Country at times. Otherwise, a stout
ridge building in from the Mississippi Valley will allow for mostly
dry weather late Saturday night through much of Tuesday. The next
closed low could then bring another round of showers in from the
west by Tuesday evening.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A broad, weak upper level low over the Ohio Valley this morning will
evolve into a mid level trough as it drifts slowly north into the
Great Lakes through Thursday. This system will continue to produce a
wealth of cloud cover across the region today through tonight, along
with a few areas of rain. The primary area of rain over Lake
Ontario, KROC, and the Finger Lakes this morning will move slowly to
the eastern Lake Ontario region this afternoon. The rain will mainly
be very light, with little restriction to VSBY. Most of Western NY
will trend mainly dry this afternoon as a pocket of somewhat drier
mid level air moves into the region.

VFR CIGS across lower elevations early this morning will evolve into
a mix of lower end VFR and MVFR later this morning through early
evening, then return to mainly VFR tonight. Lower end MVFR and
spotty IFR will be more prevalent across the higher terrain of the
Southern Tier and Finger Lakes.

Outlook...

Thursday...VFR/MVFR with scattered showers. Isolated thunderstorms
possible in the afternoon and evening with associated brief/local
restrictions.

Friday and Saturday...VFR/MVFR with showers likely and
afternoon/evening thunderstorms with local/brief restrictions.

Sunday...Mainly VFR with scattered showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate easterlies on Lake Ontario will continue to produce choppy
conditions today through this evening, especially on the west half
of the lake, but winds and waves will remain below Small Craft
Advisory criteria.

Relatively light winds are expected Thursday through Thursday night.
Winds will become south to southwest Friday through Saturday and
increase, with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible by Saturday
as a cold front crosses the eastern Great Lakes. Small Craft
Advisory conditions may continue through Sunday behind the cold
front with moderate westerlies.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock