Irondequoit, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

257
FXUS61 KBUF 231817
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
217 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Oppressive heat and humidity will continue today as a ridge of high
pressure brings mostly sunny skies to our region. There will be
little relief to the heat tonight as a very warm and muggy airmass
lingers, with Tuesday again featuring another hot and humid day,
though the retreating surface high will allow for a spotty shower or
thunderstorm to blossom near the eastern Great Lakes. Temperatures
will not be as hot for the second half of the week, though it will
remain very muggy with a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms
possible each day through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
...Heat Advisory Continues Through Tuesday...

The heat wave across western and north-central NY continues Monday
afternoon. Latest observations show temperatures in the upper 80s to
90s and dew points in the low 70s combining for "Feels Like"
temperatures in the 90s to low triple digits. This is thanks to an
upper level ridge parked over the Mid-Atlantic region extending
across much of the northeast US as depicted by latest satellite
imagery and RAP analysis. The morning 12z KBUF radiosonde reported
an 850mb temperature of 20 degC, which would be a climatological
daily max value.

This pattern with will continue into Tuesday resulting in the third
consecutive day of above normal and near record temperatures across
the region along with little overnight relief as nighttime
temperatures remain in the mid-70s. Tuesday`s temperatures will be
slightly cooler than Monday as the upper level ridge begins to
retreat southward, but still expecting "Feels Like" temperatures in
the 90s for most across western and north-central NY as Heat
Advisories continue until 6 PM. The areas of most concern with the
highest heat indicies exceeding 100 degF will once again be from
Rochester eastward across Wayne and Cayuga Co as well as near
Dansville in the Genesee Valley.

By late Tuesday afternoon, a cold front extending south from a low
pressure system passing overtop of the ridge will bring increasing
cloud cover and the chance for showers and thunderstorms. Lake
breeze boundaries extending from southwest Ontario, across the
Niagara Peninsula and eastward across the southern Lake Ontario
shorelines will be a focal point for convective development Tuesday
afternoon. This will provide some relief to the heat in the late
afternoon, but also the potential for strong winds, small hail,
heavy rainfall, and lightning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Headed into Tuesday evening, a few showers and thunderstorms may
remain into the early evening hours, especially west of Rochester
and back towards Lake Erie. The frontal boundary will position
itself near the PA/NY border overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday
and extend westward towards the Midwest. This will provide some
relief across portions of western NY by keeping the more humid air
slight farther south, but showers and thunderstorms will still be
possible across the Southern Tier in the vicinity of the front
Wednesday afternoon. Latest guidance suggests the front pushes
slight farther south into PA, but still MLCAPE will approach up to
1000 J/kg across Cattaraugus and Allegany Co with relatively weak
shear. Moist skinny CAPE profiles, PW values climbing above 1.5",
and  slow storm motions parallel to the boundary will support heavy
rainfall and the potential for localized flooding, especially in
complex terrain. Latest NAEFS guidance shows PW value
standardized anomaly over 2 sigma.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A low amplitude ridge will be in place across much of the eastern
two-thirds of the CONUS the end of the work week. Weak troughing
will be across the Canadian Maritimes and the Northern Plains.
Surface low pressure over Northern Plains will likely move northeast
into Ontario and Quebec provinces through the end of the week. An
associated stationary front will be near the southern half of the
forecast area Thursday and Friday, then the front will move north as
a warm front for the weekend. Anomalously high PWATS are forecast in
vicinity of the front. There are low chances for showers and
thunderstorms Thursday through Thursday night, and mainly across
western NY. An increasingly warm and humid airmass ahead of an
approaching cold front will increase chances for showers and
thunderstorms Friday through the weekend. Any storms will be capable
of heavy rain.

Warm and humid weather will continue Thursday through Sunday,
however it won`t be as oppressive as the heat early in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue across western and north central NY
through Tuesday morning. A 35-40kt low level jet may produce
marginal low-level wind shear across western NY overnight.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Mainly VFR. A low chance for t-storms afternoon and
evening.

Wednesday through Saturday...Chance to likely showers and
thunderstorms at times. Mainly VFR, with local/brief restrictions in
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure is centered over the Mid-Atlantic today, while
low pressure moves east across central/northern Ontario and
Quebec. The gradient between these two features will maintain
light to moderate southwesterlies today and tonight with a
moderate chop at times on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

A weak cold front will then move south across the area Tuesday
night, with winds becoming northeast Wednesday through the end of
the week, with a light to moderate chop possible at times. A few
rounds of thunderstorms are possible starting later tomorrow
afternoon and lasting through the end of the week, with locally
higher winds and waves near storms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A dome of heat will settle upon the Lower Great Lakes this week
with temperatures both daytime and through the night pushing
towards record values. Below are the temperature records for our
three climate sites of Buffalo, Rochester and Watertown. Both
Buffalo and Rochester have been keeping temperature records
since 1871, and Watertown has been keeping temperature records
since 1949.

...Date......Maximum Temp(F)....Warm Minimum Temp (F).

Buffalo

...June 23rd......92/1964..........72/1957
...June 24th......92/1949..........72/2013

Rochester

...June 23rd......95/1888..........74/1888
...June 24th......96/1949..........70/2014

Watertown

...June 23rd......91/1975..........71/1957
...June 24th......91/1999..........71/2013

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for NYZ001>008-010>014-
     019>021-085.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...Brothers
SHORT TERM...Brothers
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...Hitchcock/Thomas
CLIMATE...Thomas